AIA report

[Sawyer]

http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/thisweek09/1023/1023b_otb.cfm

[Chad Warner]

yeesh!

[ihabkal]

I guess it is not the time for me to apply for a job!

[AndyC]

I read the article as marginally positive nod to the arch viz industry. Perhaps a sniff of some good news.

[EddieLeon]

Some of the large firms won't be able to survive this recession much longer. Case in point:

 

"Cubellis, One of Boston's Largest Firms, Shuttered"

 

http://archrecord.construction.com/news/daily/archives/091204cubellis.asp

 

On the other hand, Cubellis grew too big too quickly when times were good and probably didn't downsize fast enough when things started getting bad. I did notice back in April that many Boston firms had downsized by 50% or more. This will be a good case study on managing growth...

[AndyC]

Some of the large firms won't be able to survive this recession much longer. Case in point:

 

"Cubellis, One of Boston's Largest Firms, Shuttered"

 

http://archrecord.construction.com/news/daily/archives/091204cubellis.asp

 

On the other hand, Cubellis grew too big too quickly when times were good and probably didn't downsize fast enough when things started getting bad. I did notice back in April that many Boston firms had downsized by 50% or more. This will be a good case study on managing growth...

 

Indeed, Cubellis grew at a furious rate. While impressive at first sight, I can only imagine the indirect costs incurred by the understanding and transitioning of so many aquisitions in such a short space of time. I have seen other similar firms having to reduce aquired local firms/staff from their respective teams down to just the founding partners (who are on a guaranteed contract I'm sure). I think this is the saddest lesson of all. I can only imagine the dismay felt by those partners that sold their busineses to Cubellis. Sure the buyout was probably sweet but was it worth it?

 

I think this is an example of decision making and planning that will studied for a while. As we now get used to our new economy, our new reality, its lessons like this we will all do well to learn from.

[Devin Johnston]

"However, in line with the fact that many believe the recession has already ended, the Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rebounded to 73.5 in September, the highest level it has reached since early 2008"

 

I'd really like to know what numbers they are looking at to come up with this opinion, the fact is that the economy is still contracting in every major sector except for government spending. You have to have two consecutive quarters of positive growth before you can say the recession is over. Just because consumer sentiment rebounded which is probably the result of the holiday season fast approaching doesn't mean we're out of the woods.

[ihabkal]

even if we're out of the woods it is going to take years to really have a healthy economy...

[EddieLeon]

I can only imagine the dismay felt by those partners that sold their busineses to Cubellis. Sure the buyout was probably sweet but was it worth it?

 

Definitely not worth it. I bet they only received a partial payout (and spent it). The standard practice in mergers & acquisitions is to pay the selling partners incrementally over a 5 year period. They are kept on board throughout the term to help maintain company stability (clients). Let's assume a best case scenario where they get their office back and have no outstanding debts to a bank or liabilities with a client. Then what? It's almost like starting from scratch again. Most architects that sell their firms are in their 50's or 60's. It's not a good time to start over.

 

We might be out of the woods, but as we look back, there isn't much of a forest left and it will take some time for the trees to grow back. Do we plant new ones or clear the ashes to create farmland?