Hi All,
Whilst doing the 2014 CGArchitect Survey (which you should all do if you haven't already because it's great) there's a question about where the industry is heading, and it's a text-input option - ie, not multiple choice. This makes it fairly difficult to quantify, and whilst I'm sure Jeff will diligently find a way via an arduous slog through our inane ramblings, I thought it might be good for us to have a place to discuss and possibly show-and-tell what we done wrote.
Where do you see the industry heading in the next 5 years?
I think staying on full CPU (as opposed to GPU) rendering but with it all hooked up nicely to the cloud. As broadband speeds and provisions increase, the "troubles" with cloud rendering with become less and less of an issue. When competition really begins in the space, I think people will stop looking at GPU rendering as being a cheaper (insomuch as time = money) alternative to CPU but rather they'll concentrate on quality, which at the moment tends to be higher on CPU thanks to fewer constraints.
I also think that in-house viz at architectural practices will start to eat the low and even mid tier viz companies' breakfasts - in house teams might be fairly expensive but they're a) cheaper than high end companies and b) far quicker for prototyping than the lower end, cheaper (typically internationally outsourced) companies. The quality and speed of desktop machines and rendering software (for ex VRay and it's entirely decent sun and sky model are available for more and more software platforms inc architectural ones) that I think the low end part of the industry that's typically used for competition/bidding projects or design-and-development projects will find little to offer practices. Furthermore, the gradual increase in the use of cloud rendering will reduce the need for expensive, up-front local render farms, further increasing the potency of small, in house teams. I think that what will ultimately remain are the more high end studio's whose dedication to the process (that is, the ones able to properly study the whole pipeline for potential improvements, develop in house tools and art styles, and who's typically marketing-focus allows for more visually interesting films and images) will be the only one's who will hold out longest in the battle to be replaced by small internal teams.
What recent advancements do you see as being most significant to the advancement of the architectural visualization industry.
Cloud rendering, without a doubt. I think it's a real game changer - it's one of the few "hurdles" of a CG film process that we can really throw money at. If we want a render quicker, we can spend more. There aren't many parts of the process where this is the case, as even hiring more people doesn't necessarily result in a faster outcome (too many cooks etc - which isn't an accusation anyone ever used against a render farm!) It allows us to work for longer before hitting render which improves quality. It allows us to respond more quickly to feedback from clients, and it allows us to be more transparent with our clients when it comes to charges for re-renders that result from requested changes that fall outside the original scope (we can say with certainty, honesty and - if necessary - proof that a certain shot cost us, say, £200 to render, so that can be added onto the bill for any changes required). This isn't limited to the ArchViz industry, but it gives us a larger degree of flexibility compared with before, and its uptake will go up and its price down in the future, I think.
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That's what I wrote, anyway. What do you guys think? I think this is a pretty broad discussion and not the first time we've done it, but I thought it was a timely reboot. If Jeff has a problem with this discussion - insomuch as we're spilling some of the beans from the survey - then of course close it up, but hopefully it's fine since it's basically the least useful part of the survey as it's just our (admittedly somewhat educated) predictions as opposed to quantifiable data.