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How are you dealing with creepy recession ?


archkre
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The only people who will be rejected for a mortgage are those who can't afford one, if you’re going to put 20% down, have good credit, and a steady income you've got no worries. I just closed on a house Monday and those people were happy to take my money.

 

 

Not totaly true mortgage approvals here were down 95% in august.. you cant tell me that all these were from bad risk applications.

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Why not, if a large percentage of these banks loans were sub prime it makes since that they would be down by that percentage. I'm sure there would also be some mortgages rejected that were on the edge of that category as well, but people who qualify for a traditional mortgage should still have no problem getting approved.

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But they are been turned down because the banks dont have the money to lend, I agree with a previous comment that the media is helping to push us towards the edge of the cliff just this morning a BBC reporter broke the story that 3 of our leading banks met with the government to see what help they would get but came away unconvinced, this then sent the shares in uk banks down.. one droped 40% ...10 billion pounds.

 

300,000 people have just been told that an internet bank based in Norway (I think) just got nationalised to stop it crashing . Its looking like anything above 50k ( the amount our goverment will cover) will be lost approx 3 billion of savers money.

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My complaint about the bailout is the dollar number assigned to it. I have yet to hear how that dollar amount was arrived at, and have only heard it was chosen because they thought it would be enough to take care of the problem. Excuse me, but isn't that just the same lack of foresight that got us into this mess in the first place. Not the same reason, just the same lack of foresight. Rushing this whole thing in with a sense of urgency that it must be passed ASAP prevented anyone from having enough time to thoroughly analyze the numbers. At least IMO.

 

If this is to close to political, delete it.

Edited by Crazy Homeless Guy
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But they are been turned down because the banks dont have the money to lend...

 

 

Banks are allowed to lend more money than they actually have in deposits - usually between 5 - 30 times the deposited value, sometimes more. They need to slowly and carefully build their "incoming" cash so that they can lend more. People like Maxer "new mortgagees" will be the ones that help the banks win. Give them a while, a few Government bail-outs, a couple of million foreclosures and extend some cheap credit to the cashed-up sectors will fix it up. It's times like these that banks need to cast-off "risky" mortgagees (foreclose) and suck-up to low-risk finance. The last thing the banks want now is for all their wealthy investors to withdraw (make a "run on the bank")... it'll send the bank out of business. Banks make money purely out of credit. In order to lend it, they have to have it - albeit only a fraction.

 

This is one of the best "plain english" explanations of the credit/ debit system that I've ever heard or seen. It's a video called "Money As Debt". I highly recommend it to anyone who has a bank account. Watch it with your husbands/ wives/ other, but make sure you watch it...47 minutes http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279 I guarantee that you'll learn something of use.

 

S.

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  • 5 weeks later...

guys guys, we're looking at it all wrong. This is an awesome opportunity! This is the perfect time to get you're foot in the door with big clients that are itching to market themselves above their competitors. How do they do that! They come to us. We are a community of amazing artists who can produce work putting our clients above others.

 

Sooner rather than later, the market will pick up again, and when it does, the rendering/animation you did to help a large developer get their first project off the ground after a long recession will be remembered. BIG opportunities are right in front of us! Right now! Our market is unique because creativity is always at a premium, no matter what economic circumstance. Get those creative noodles cookin'

 

That's my 2cents :)

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BIG opportunities are right in front of us! Right now! Our market is unique because creativity is always at a premium, no matter what economic circumstance. Get those creative noodles cookin'

 

I totally agree with this. I work as a designer/visualization artist at my firm and we are the only department that is really busy. We are getting to do some very creative work with this down time.

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guys guys, we're looking at it all wrong. This is an awesome opportunity! This is the perfect time to get you're foot in the door with big clients that are itching to market themselves above their competitors. How do they do that! They come to us. We are a community of amazing artists who can produce work putting our clients above others.

 

I agree 100%. There is a silver lining behind this mess. Marketing will be more critical than ever for architects & developers. Although, they will be value conscious. I would offer more/better services and greater availability.

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the firms that are big enough to weather the storm will be prepared to take on the work when it comes back and hire some of the best layed off talent early next year.

 

Hmmm...we are getting a lot of work from the big firms now. More than before. Not exactly sure why. But, I will guess that next year they might try to keep the artists off payroll as they will continue to drive overhead down.

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  • 6 months later...
On the way back from AU I was sitting next to a bank analyst for one of the major US banks and he said all of the major indicators say there should not be a recession like is being seen. I guess it was initially triggered by hedge fund managers, which was then picked up by the media who continue to perpetuate the recession scare which in the end actually causes one. It's a conspiracy. :p

 

Launched this thread in November 2007 and many colleagues laughed at me!

Somebody was very wrong here! lol

Edited by archkre
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Just wait until hyperinflation hits, we've doubled the debt in the last 4 months and even if we've seen the worst of this downturn we've still got no way to pay that money back. I read a story the other day about how all of the taxes the US collects per year will only pay off the interest on the debt for that year. There operating in the red with no signs of stopping, you tell me if we've gotten out of trouble or are just getting into it.

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Somebody was very wrong here! lol

 

I remember this thread and my attitude was to look for the silver lining as things get worse. In 2007 I think that most people knew the good times were not going to last forever. There were just too many projects being planned and too many under-qualified people buying into them. Maybe we were a little in denial about it, but the warning signs were there. You were obviously paying attention.

 

Now that everything has crashed, the real question is how we can get out of this wreckage. There is an oversupply of 3d companies and an under supply of projects. Some of us plan to keep our current business models and hope that things turn around soon. Others have given up and are pursuing other revenue streams. Personally, I think it's all become a big guessing game.

 

Can you now look into your crystal ball again and give us an indication of what the future holds for us? ;)

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This thread was started back in November 2007 by a very bright individual. My prediction is this...At this point we are about 18 months into this recession. It will probably take about 18-24 months to get out of it. Yes, a long recession by any definition, but if you are still working in your 3D business and maintaining some sort of work flow, congratulations.

 

Most likely you have done what you needed to do. Cutting costs, maintaining quality business relationships, and have been smart with your capital. The ugly side of a free market system is that people and business fail. The positive side is you are given the chance to succeed. Ordinary people can do amazing things with their lives when given an opportunity. That is the only thing you are guaranteed, an opportunity.

 

Things will improve, just hang in there.:)

 

Thank You,

 

Jason Dillon

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  • 4 months later...

It's the first time i saw this post and all I can say is that it's well worthed reading from start to finish! You can see people's opinions changing and feel the confidence disappearing... Back in 2007 i was one of the only people in Southern California that had the financial possibility to buy a house but decided not to, and I am really glad that I stuck to my opinion while everybody around was telling me I'm making a mistake by not buying!

 

Now 2 years later, I can see how this situation worsened and maybe I am the pessimistic type but I don't see a bright future for our industry. The housing market will take a lot longer to recover than it's expected due to the complexity of the economic situation and the people that were laid off are in the worst position as most of them have no marketing and business skills. It's true, there still is some work to be done out there and there are a few people still thriving but that's the minority. The rest are changing industries, looking for other booming markets, spending money they don't have on training hoping for a better career etc. This only will worsen the situation in my opinion.

 

The big software companies are losing money as their user base is shrinking thus they will try to find ways to make more money from their existing users, alienating them. New players will try to catch the fallen user base with better and cheaper products but most of them will fail due to under capitalization too...

 

These are times when the money and power will shift around plenty of times and for some will bring prosperity but for most will not be the best of times.

 

I hope my train of thoughts here is not that depressing...

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Hi Anton,

 

Wow that sure is a bleak outlook on the future. After reading your post I was ready to walk off the roof. ;) Sure things are not great, but I don't know if they are quite that bad. I don't know if you've read our industry survey, but it seems that most of the industry is a lot more optimistic about the future.

 

http://www.cgarchitect.com/news/Reviews/Review070_1.asp

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Hi Jeff,

 

I was reading my post again and you're right, it is a bleak outlook on the future! Maybe I am too pessimistic but my opinions are influenced quite strong by the discussions I keep having with all my peers in the industry. Companies are still laying off and are not able to get enough work in house to keep them running, people that were used to just have the work handed to them are now forced to freelance and they are struggling at best to get jobs, and the successful freelancers I know are getting less jobs too.

 

Maybe all this is because I am in Southern California, which is one of the areas hit hardest by the housing market... I really hope that this is just my opinion and not the reality.

 

As about the survey, I've read the results but I am still taking it with a grain of salt as it's human nature to be optimistic about the future and paint a better picture (no pun intended!)

 

As I said before, I really hope that this is just my opinion and I am wrong because it's an industry I love and have been part of for the last 15 years!

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The latest jobless numbers in the US just hit 10.2%, those numbers don't tell the whole story as they leave out people who have quit looking for work or retired early or aren't illegible for unemployment for one reason or another. I've seen numbers as high as 20% which would put total unemployment as high as 64 million people. From what I've read it looks like next year could be even tougher than this one when inflation hits. I'm very concerned about the state of the industry even more so than when I took the last survey. Add to that we are looking at a avalanche of new taxes if pending legislation passes, none of which will help small business or freelancers. These are real things that we can't dismiss, beleave me I'd like to.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Just came across this post this morning - Interesting reading alright. For what its worth Ireland seems to have been hit just as hard with the recession tidal wave. Unfortunately our banking system is in a complete mess and the government is doing very little - well a lot of talking and no action. They have set up a Government body called NAMA to buy all toxic debt from the major banks with the objective of making them liquid again and in turn start lending once more. A lot of debate about it but two things are for sure

(1) If it works we will become a wealthy nation again but not for at least 5- 10 years

(2) If it doesn't work then the IMF will come in and take over - just like Iceland.

We are currently borrowing €460million a week to cover expediture which is mainly going on public sector wages and social welfare - but thats a whole different argument. No initiatives are being carried out like paying private companies to hold onto staff instead of letting them go on the live register.

 

In terms of the arch viz and arch industries, we are suffering like everyone else. They reckon that over 60% of architects in Ireland are out of work!!.

We ourselves are well on the road to diversification which I feel will stand to us in the long run and help us achieve better business than before.

With all the doom and gloom its really important IMO to stay positive, focused, network with people and constantly bounce ideas of one another. Throw as much mud as possible and some will stick

 

Regards

Nick

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