Quick Survey - Our Industry's Pulse

[EddieLeon]

Hey Everyone,

I think it would be great to get a quick reading on our sense of the state of the industry. Personally, I think we have hit rock bottom and it can't get worse.

 

On a scale of 1 to 10 where do you think we are in terms of business opportunities? 0 is no work at all and 10 is you have more work than you can handle.

 

I would rate it at a 4 and it should start to improve slowly throughout the year.

 

What are your thoughts?

[ikinman]

It can get worse, and it will. But it will also get better as well. This seems like a silly thing to say, but essentially I feel that the 'bottom' will not be a single point or long line of flat, but instead a series of ups and further downs.

 

Personally I don't see much positive happening this year, but I think that this year as a whole will be the bottom.

 

As far as business opportunities I would rate it a 0, since this is the worst I've ever seen it. However if you look for a broader sense of what a 'business opportunity' is there is a lot more possibility.

 

I've mentioned this on other posts but I think this recession is accelerating trends that have been happening in our profession. As an example, I think that the market for individual renderings is pretty much over except for certain small bits, such as ultra high end imagery and (hopefully) excellent traditional imagery. This will result from the commodification of digital images, (witness cheap outsourced imagery) and the desire of many clients to 'insource' such work.

 

What will not diminish is animation (for the short term) and especially multimedia. Interactive presentations, such as found in sales centers and the like, will become more and more common.

 

So from a standpoint of opportunity, I would be focusing on that, and I believe that this is an excellent time to begin the groundwork for such work.

[Spooner04]

I would say a zero at this point.

 

I agree with some of the thoughts that Ian mentioned. It seems like decent size firms, maybe 20 employees or more, are wanting to do more of the 'medium sized' projects in house. I think there will still be a market for single images catering to smaller architecture firms who can't afford to have someone on staff doing arch vis.

 

I think right now the AEC industry is pretty much turned on its ear and there is no telling what kind of stuff will make it through the fire.

[anejo]

I would say opportunities today are about 3. However, if you would have asked this same questions 2 months ago, I would have answer 0.

 

As Ian mentioned, there seem to be this trend of Up's and Down's. So i'm not optimistic, but more cautious optimistic.

Edited April 14, 2009 by anejo

[Justin Hunt]

Once business realise that they have to do it for themselves and not wait for goverments to bail them out, I see us getting very busy. 3D has become a intergral part of the marketing campaign. Marketing has t obe more aggressive to get your dollar, as such more work for us. This will come in time.

 

Right now is the time to really stream line the processes so that when it does pick-up you are in a possion to steam ahead.

 

There is work out there, go get it

 

jhv

[Tim Nelson]

I would say 2 for architectural renderings, and 8.5 if you are able to diversify. I haven't diversified, so that means I'm still at the bottom. I'm hoping to change that because nobody really knows how long it will take for this horrible recession to pass - for all we know it hasn't bottomed out yet, though there have been some encouraging signs in the past week.

 

I've become a believer that the money is still out there for cg, just not in architecture at the moment.

[mahorela]

I am a bit of an optimist in this case, I think it will bounce back sooner than expected.

 

It is now however a case of put your head down and try to ride it out.

 

Also of concern are the projects that are getting off the ground, they are so chopped down and uninspiring, the aftermath of this recession will be some real eyesores.

 

my score=4

[Scott Erstad]

Its pretty bad that is for sure. Some info from the national AIA regarding billings and inquiries, some info repeats but they are short reads...

 

 

http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/thisweek09/0320/0320b_otb.cfm

http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/thisweek09/0220/0220b_otb.cfm

http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/thisweek09/0123/0123b_otb.cfm

 

 

Scott

[EddieLeon]

Thanks everyone for the excellent feedback. I guess we can all agree that things are pretty bad across the board. The only steady work we have been getting is from architects that need help with competitions. They are paying out-of-pocket so the fees are low.

 

I've mentioned this on other posts but I think this recession is accelerating trends that have been happening in our profession.

 

I agree. I think these trends are leading to permanent changes in our industry that are not very favorable for us. At the end of the day, everyone is trying to save as much money as possible. So the clients prefer to do the work in-house or go directly to China. This is causing an exponential impact on some studios. For example, the architects might have a 30% drop in workload. But, it is resulting in a 60% drop for the local 3d industry.

[Chad Warner]

The only steady work we have been getting is from architects that need help with competitions. They are paying out-of-pocket so the fees are low.

 

That's exactly what we're seeing as well, although even that's starting to drop off too. A year ago someone would have come to us to produce a still image for a competition, now they come to us for an animation.

Edited April 15, 2009 by Chad Warner

[Brian Smith]

i would rate it between 3 and 5...fluctuates the smaller the firm you are.

 

i still think there is plenty of work out there to be had...just that we have to look harder to find it and market ourselves to those that don't know what 3D is all about and what it can do for them. for example... attached is something i did this afternoon for a local military unit who wanted to see what their unit coin would look like. haven't finished, but they want an animation of the coin spinning around to see if the design is good enough before sending it off to be made. the only reason they even knew about my services is because a friend of mine in the unit knew what i did and thought he'd mention me to the commander. it's certainly not architectural, but it pays well.

[Crazy Homeless Guy]

I work in house, so things are a bit different. For the last couple of months we have been running a 9 or so on still images. For the next couple of months I have about a 6 on the schedule so far, but that changes weekly.

[Dave Buchhofer]

In the same boat as Travis (Firms compete on a fair number of projects..) We've got a fairly steady number of stills/inhouse renders coming through, the occasional promo video from outside clients for fundraising, and the occasional interactive sales tool app. Not exactly much to grow on, but holding on.

[John Dollus]

Overall, i think those of us on the East Coast have been affected more than many other places. Also, I have a friend in AZ who runs a design build practice that really hasn't been affected much at all and is busy with construction projects. There is some support for that theory based on national figures:

http://www.slate.com/id/2216238/

[leoA4D]

http://www.slate.com/id/2216238/

 

Egads! That's a downer.

 

Leonard

[Tim Nelson]

Also, I have a friend in AZ who runs a design build practice that really hasn't been affected much at all and is busy with construction projects.

Really? Does he work outside of Phoenix in another part of the state? Maybe he's just in that perfect niche that is escaping the worst of it. All the other news I've been hearing from AZ about architecture is not good.

[John Dollus]

He's in the Las Vegas area handling mainly small commercial development. Nothing residential and nothing more than a couple stories tall that would require major financing so he's pretty well placed. too bad they are also the kind of jobs that don't require any renderings..

[Justin Hunt]

You'll find that in this market, those developers who are not reliant on Bank money are using the down market as a time to purchase land cheap. Also they are getting better tenders than before. I have a couple of clients like this and they are full steam ahead. Those who depend on the banks to finance are holding off.

 

jhv

[Preludevtec22]

I would say my business is at an 8/9 - we are extremely busy in terms of 2D Planning Applications and Building Regs work. However, the 3D side of the business is not too strong at the moment - clients are not willing to pay the bit extra for 3D visuals - they would rather save their cash initially and see if Planning will be granted without the flash visualisations.

[EddieLeon]

However, the 3D side of the business is not too strong at the moment - clients are not willing to pay the bit extra for 3D visuals - they would rather save their cash initially and see if Planning will be granted without the flash visualisations.

 

Good point. I think everyone's 3d business is down at the moment. I always thought that 3d was a critical part of the design process and an important end product. It makes me wonder how necessary it really is when so many companies are scaling back on 3d spending. Maybe the amount of 3d production is the same, but as you pointed out it's less flashy work and more schematic. I wonder if there is an ideal way that 3d companies can adapt to this new reality?

[Virgil Johnson]

I think the new reality is Revit.

Well, BIM to be more generic.

 

Max (or whatever rendering program)just adds bells and whistles - but so much easier to add once the model has been made for other purposes as well.

 

Might be getting myself in hot water here...

 

but this site is computer graphics architect

which does not automatically translate to high quality artist's renderings only

 

also (digging myself deeper into hot water)

I think the future in architectural modeling and rendering will be more linked to people with a techical background.

That is, you should know about design and building.

 

Just a fact of life that we will all need deeper and wider skills in this new world.

 

Virgil

Edited April 18, 2009 by Virgil Johnson

[Devin Johnston]

We're probably running at a 6 or 7 right now, it's actually picked up a little in the last month but we're not anticipating that it will get much busier any time soon. My firm is about 140 people strong and there are two of us handling all the viz work, they are still hiring people but have frozen raises until things pick up. Overall I'm optimistic for this year but next year is a different story and it's when I think we will really see the consequences of what's going on.

[Noise]

I have read this thread and numerous others in an attempt to understand and figure a solution to this economic stuff and eventually decided to go for a few pints with my friends.

 

After a few beautiful pints of Guinnses-Cold and a long philosophical ponderance enjoying the spring sunshine outside the pub I arrived at an encapsulating conclusion to all of this that seemed appropriate to me, it was;

 

"Life is like a tapestry"

 

You can probably imagine all the connotations and metaphors that pertain to such a statement and at some level agree that there might be some truth to it ? Not until I decided to fashion it to my friend;

 

Me: Life is like a tapestry

 

Jim: Have you ever used a loom ?

 

Me: No

 

Jim: So, how do you know that life is like a tapestry ?

 

Me: I don't

 

Usually I would argue my point for some time but, I had to admit that he had a point.

 

In the end more Guinness was consumed and unawares to me all the worries of the world disappeared over a full and extended conversation of who had suffered most from the recession.

 

The worst of which was one of my friends work colleagues who unfortunately benefitted from the passing away of one of his family. He eventually sold the house which was bequeathed to him and - under the advice of his financial advisor, placed all the six figure sum into the bank of Iceland. Boom - gone, all of it.

 

Of all the stories that I have heard to ordinary people in this economic mess - that was the worst.

 

Another true story from another friend was this - his boss was awarded the entrepreneur of the year and in his acceptance speech said the following, unbelieveably;

 

"In business you should not pay the small companies in the hope that they will go out of business and you will not have to pay them".

 

The moral of the story it this: as money is tight, almost - everyone will try to not pay you until they absolutely have to. I have found that implementing the law to recoup payment is of little consequence as it can take months, if not years for it to kick in - in the mean time your company might go bust. My opinion (from experience) is to protect your cash flow and defend it with your life. This is a good procedure;

 

1. 50% deposit (especially for new clients) up front

2. Pay on delivery (always always always)

3. In your terms and conditions, make each quote have a 3 month shelf life - things are changing very quickly and you don't want to be held to anything longer than that

4. Do not and never hesitate to use a debt recovery firm - it works, believe me

and

5. Although cost is king at the moment, look at orientating yourself towards the other side of the recession (diversify if possible) - it will end some time and not all companies will be left to do all the 3D work when that happens - hopefully yours.

Edited April 20, 2009 by Noise

[innerdream]

Another mystery solved by beer, life is good.

[Pechara]

Hi Everyone, this is my first post. I have been reading this forum on and off for the past 5 years or so.

 

Id say its a 6-7 for me right NOW. I did not see any registrable slowdown in '08 and this year ('09) has been an 9. This month has been slow, but historically it always has been for the last 11 years of me being self employed. It gives me more time to plant my garden and enjoy spending more time with my wife.

 

Anyway, I thought id jump in and say hi to everyone. I have admired many of your works over the years. I hope i can contribute to the collective.