Things Might Get Worse?

[EddieLeon]

Yeah right, I can't wait for him to raise my taxes. And if you think health insurance is expensive now, wait until its free.

 

I would rather pay more taxes to keep America healthy than to pay $10Billion per month to have Americans and Iraqis killed

[ikinman]

And, Eddie, just think how much your company pays for covering health insurance costs for your employees. Mine sure pays a bunch, enough for me to hire more people. I'll bet you're the same: I'd gladly have the cost lifted from me, and have the government take care of it.

 

Yeah, they'd need to raise my taxes to do it, but I'm OK with that, since the medical coverage that they do currently run has much lower overhead costs than frickin' Oxford or Prudential. Overall I'd definitely be ahead of the game.

 

-Ian

[Chad Warner]

I would rather pay more taxes to keep America healthy than to pay $10Billion per month to have Americans and Iraqis killed

 

You pretty much hit the nail on the head for me with this one.

[JDillon]

We could always adopt the European taxation model here in a America and have double digit unemployment. This way everyone is covered and is happy and well.

 

Thank You,

 

Jason Dillon

[JDillon]

By the way, Iraq is not the only dangerous place in the world.

 

http://cbs2chicago.com/local/chicago.summer.shootings.2.810166.html

 

Isn't this Obama's old stomping grounds. I wonder how much it costs to run just the city of Chicago. It's an awesome city, but they do have the highest sales tax in the nation.

 

Thank You ,

 

Jason Dillon

[SandmanNinja]

It's polite conversation now, but someone is going to say something that is too much for someone...

 

I never discuss 3 things outside of family because it can just get crazy: religion, politics, abortion.

[EddieLeon]

It's polite conversation now, but someone is going to say something that is too much for someone...

 

I never discuss 3 things outside of family because it can just get crazy: religion, politics, abortion.

 

Yep. You are right. This could easily go downhill quick. I'll avoid the politics

 

Anyways, it would be great to hear any further opinions and observations about the economy and the markets. Some great stuff has been discussed so far.

[JDillon]

SandmanNinja,

 

Dude, we're just playin'. No blood no foul right guys! (well maybe not the best form of jest at the moment).

 

Thank You,

 

Jason Dillon

[EddieLeon]

Dude, we're just playin'. No blood no foul right guys!

 

Hey Man, you don't need to twist my arm to turn this into a Fight Club

 

Actually, let's keep it clean for now so that anyone else that's reading this won't be afraid to post their thoughts. As it is, I think business and economy talk is pretty taboo for many artists...(poke, poke, jab)

[JDillon]

First rule about Fight Club...Nobody talks about Fight Club. Second rule about Fight Club...Nobody talks about Fight Club!

 

Economy wise, I do think the 3.3 GDP for 2nd q 2008 is a little inflated. Thoughts, concerns...

 

Thank You and Have a great weekend!

 

Jason Dillon

[Nic H]

It's polite conversation now, but someone is going to say something that is too much for someone...

 

I never discuss 3 things outside of family because it can just get crazy: religion, politics, abortion.

 

ah but unless you discuss these you never really get an idea of what a person is about - im all for putting everthing on the table when it comes to conversation, until you have to explain / validate your beliefs you never really crystallise them in your own head proplery.

 

ill tell you what if i was american Id be shit scared of the prospect of McCain and his horrible ultra right wing attack dog Palin getting into the white house. that would really culturally isolate america in a world context i think.

 

opps this thread is about the economy! not trying to derail.

Edited September 6, 2008 by nicnic

[Sawyer]

ah but unless you discuss these you never really get an idea of what a person is about - im all for putting everthing on the table when it comes to conversation, until you have to explain / validate your beliefs you never really crystallise them in your own head proplery.

 

Yup I agree. Except this is really a place about sharing working related ideas not getting to know each other better.

 

Its a transition time. I hear a bit more hope now but there are still enough reasons to be scared. I think the housing sector will be slow for a long time, maybe 10 years. Maybe less. There is so much inventory on the market and the market has shifted so low what is selling is going for much lower than what many peoples mortgages are. Even when the market picks up it may be a while until there is a profit to be made.

 

We thought about selling this year but we couldn't sell for what we bought our house for 5 years ago. I don't know how long it will take for us to be able to sell and break even much less make a profit. And we have friends who bought a house that is now worth half what they owe on it. What do you do with that? Sit on it and wait for it to recover? Foreclosure? They say its a better bet to take the credit hit with foreclosure. Thats scary. Its not that they can't afford the payments they can but are they throwing money away by paying their mortgage?

 

We have all heard this stuff before and we probably wont know if the economy is recovering or not until mid 09. Personally I do think that if the election is "successful" it will make a huge difference in instilling the hope this country needs

[leoA4D]

I do not know how you can talk about the economy without touching on some of the taboo subjects because we are witnessing how they are influencing the economy. It is all interelated.

 

If you limit the discussion or include taboo subjects, participants should have gleaned facts from sources and not from news shows, magazines and politicians. I would suggest starting with the following lists and articles which should be interesting and should dispell erroneous preachings about regions of the world (Note, look for Denmark in many of these items.):

 

"Child Well-Being in Rich Countries 2007", http://www.photius.com/rankings/child_well_being_in_rich_countries_2007.html

 

NSF, "Despite Frustrations, Americans Are Pretty Darned Happy", http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=111725

 

Reuters, "And the world's happiest country is..", http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSN0145488820080701

 

"Country Ranks 2008", http://www.photius.com/rankings/

 

Geography IQ, "Rankings>Literacy-total population", http://www.geographyiq.com/ranking/ranking_Literacy_total_population_dall.htm

 

University of Michigan, "Study of worldwide rates of religiosity, church attendance", http://www.umich.edu/news/index.html?Releases/1997/Dec97/chr121097a

 

"Freedom of the Press 2008", http://photius.com/rankings/freedom_of_the_press_2008.html

[Nic H]

all very interesting - should be required reading. Those scandanavian countries have always been light years ahead in social equality and general social services.

 

I found the correlation between countries with better social services, more stable economies, more press freedom and low levels of church attendance interesting, it seems the more free/happy/prosperous the less need there is to fill a void with religion.

 

anyways, im straying off topic - Where can I download vray again?

[Sawyer]

Those are great links. Thanks

[leoA4D]

all very interesting - should be required reading. Those scandanavian countries have always been light years ahead in social equality and general social services.

 

Yep.

 

I found the correlation between countries with better social services, more stable economies, more press freedom and low levels of church attendance interesting, it seems the more free/happy/prosperous the less need there is to fill a void with religion.

 

Yep, and that is a perceptive comment.

 

anyways, im straying off topic - Where can I download vray again?

 

Yep. Back on topic.

 

Sawyer,

 

Your welcome.

 

Leonard

[PAWUK]

We are expected to have had a 15% drop in house prices from august 2007 to august 2008 followed by a 12% drop to august 2009.

 

New build house projects are at a near standstill , we recentley looked at a four bedroom new build 4 months ago on the market for 280k, made the mistake of leaving our details the wife had the first call a month later...now 260k...few weeks later 250k plus move in incentives...now 240k.

 

40k drop in 4 months....buyers market.

 

Even with this I cant seem to shift the idear that all this recent panic seems to be fueled by the almost manic attempt by the media to talk us into a recession.

[SandmanNinja]

I think long term investment, real estate is still the way to go. I think it's a lot more stable than the stock market.

 

Sure, there will be reverses and downturns and slowdowns, but I think they will correct themselves eventually and begin the climb again.

 

Even if the bottom drops out completely, I think the 'rich 5%' of the population will go on a buying spree and that will trickle down the economy and give it a boost.

 

It's just a question of what people (not just arch vis) can do to 'hang on' until it starts getting better.

[nycL45]

This downturn is one that economists, and we, will learn a lot from. Never before have a combination of traditional economic factors been so intertwined with a more globalized world now suffering the American sub-prime mess and banks on the bubble, forced to make fundamental business changes due to global warming, that is arguably less stable, with unparalleled food shortages in poorer nations brought on, in part, by wealthier countries, where oil prices are driven primarily by speculation than by actual supply and demand, and adjusting to the new engines of the world economy being China, India and...

 

Hold on, it is going to be a wild, extremely bumpy and thrilling (?) ride into the unknown. It is not possible to say what sacrifices and compromises are to come but, we will be alright.

 

Leonard

[cccj]

I don't know much about US real estate.I' d like to say some my experience in China, which maybe you can refer to. Last year, real estate business in China was really crazy. In my city, the average price for apartments raised to about 3000 USD$ per square meter (FYI, it's only about 1000USD$ in 2004). And real estate agencies made a lot of money during the last year. But how about us then? As a CG architecture rendering and animation company, did we get more job from this "great" opportunity? NO, there was not much job for us to do. because it was so easy to sell appartments and houses, developers did not even need to do renderings or animations, they could sell easily with just plans. But this year, because real-estate business starts going down, we start to get more jobs from domestic market. I don't know how long this could last, but things are better than last year so far. So maybe it's not that bad for you in US either. Besides, the summer holiday in Europe is over now, so maybe things will get better soon.

[nycL45]

cccj, that is a good attitude. The U.S. economy normally goes through a period of growth and then a correction or downturn which can be strong, mild or weak and last a few months to more than a year. This time, there are unusual factors that may or may not affect a return to a growth economy. The downturn we are in now is not a year old yet and has not been too severe. It could get worse or, like you suggested, it may improve. We will see.

 

An example of how globally linked we are now, China's growing economy, along with others, has not only impacted oil but has affected availability of concrete, steel, and drywall or sheetrock, to mention a few items. We have actually had (not serious) shortages in those building materials and cost increases as producers choose to send their products to China, India or the Middle East.

 

Leonard

[Antisthenes]

only high performance green homes are worth investing in the rest will continue to fall in value as they are inefficient product.

[Sawyer]

Jonas I don't think we are there yet but if you want to see an upside to this economy that is it. Cars and homes are getting updated at a rate that the free market in good times would not allow. US car makers knew this day would come it just hit them harder and sooner than they wanted. Yesterday at Costco they had a solar panel installer on display. These are really good things and things we need to change.

[D.B.]

During the past few “recessions”, Texas suffered less and recovered sooner. The low and medium size home builders started dropping out of the picture about 15 or 16 months ago, but million dollar + homes have been doing well. The good news is that home starts have increased here during the last quarter, and the recent federal bail-out of two quasi-governmental home lending agencies could lead to lower interest rate for home loans….

I’ve seen an increase in commercial work in the last year, probably because my clients have had to adjust to market conditions, and have been concentrating on those markets…y’all may need to make similar adjustments to survive this bump in the road.

 

D.B.

[Antisthenes]

yes the question is can we do it fast enough and those who get left behind will that only create more divisions in society, how long will that last?

 

how to make ecological affordable products that are cheap and last long.

 

because as we have seen this has not been a forethought of the industry to date, their idea is to make stuff need to be replaced so as the make a continued revenue stream via obsolescence, the earth, it's resources, and the creatures can not handle that. They continue to be strained more so at exponential rates that are not apparent to many with out the access to the data sets and evidence.

 

how to address increasing poverty, and increase human(and other animals) health both physically and mentally? hmmm

 

as somebody who has only known my home to be solar powered since 1984 and helped many privileged off grid people procure these system and take advantages of non corporate DIY approaches to health threw my life long vegetarian lifestyle, I can only hope, but their always remains skepticism in this humanists mind.