EddieLeon Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 Jeff, Would the Index break down the average by persons in the industry/total billing or company/total billing or just total billing. If we just want to get a good sense of the health of the industry then I think the company size and billing amount doesn't matter. We just need to know the percentage of change in billings per month. This is all we need to create a simple graph that tells us if business for everyone is getting better or worse. Also, after a few years of charting performance then we can get a better sense of what the yearly sales cycles are like. For example, is the Fall quarter better than Summer in general? This helps everyone to plan accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycL45 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 It will be necessary to break the firm size into some groupings, e.g., 1-5, 6-15, 16-30, 31-50, etc. since billings (some do other cg + archviz), methods, magnitudes, O&P will likely differ significantly. Maybe three groups? Also, some geographical locations breakdown will be necessary. This might lead to sectors such as archviz teams within architectural offices, interiors only folks, etc. Then, that info could be grouped on one chart. It would be similar to the salary studies published here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieLeon Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 The more info the better, but if getting this info becomes difficult and inconsistent then it might become useless. My 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycL45 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Inconsistent, as in apples and oranges. Not much use. If market tracking is going to be like the NYSE C, NIKKEI, and so on, it will be based on much reconciled data to be useful. Difficult? Getting the info and in a usable form is likely to be difficult but not impossible. Start by building an onion. Another $.02. The pot is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieLeon Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 If market tracking is going to be like the NYSE C, NIKKEI, and so on, it will be based on much reconciled data to be useful. NYSE and NIKKEI are pretty complex. I think it will be easier to have a simple index like the S&P 500. Except I don't think we will track 500 companies. Maybe 50? Linear graph of the S&P 500 from 1950 to the present Wouldn't it be cool to have a simple graph like this that shows us how our market is performing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad Warner Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 I think it would be great to have a data like that available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycL45 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 NYSE and NIKKEI are pretty complex. I think it will be easier to have a simple index like the S&P 500. Except I don't think we will track 500 companies. Maybe 50? Wouldn't it be cool to have a simple graph like this that shows us how our market is performing? +1, 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cccj Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 It souds great to have such a CGA Index. Imagine after years of tracking, we can probably predict the market at certain time of a year, is that possible? I don't know but does anyone know if there is such an index for architecture design market? If so, it may be interesting to compare the 2 indexes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieLeon Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 Hi Jim, Yes. I bet every year will have similar and predictable patterns. We can even compare them to the larger AEC industry and use it to predict future effects on Arch Viz. For example, if there is a drop in architectural billings we know that it will directly affect us down the line. This one is obvious, but there might be other good indicators to keep an eye on. Such as, office leasing rates or large land purchases. We will have to research this and see what other indexes we need to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antisthenes Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 An association i an part of called AIA(we are highly political, as you have to be these days as a architect see:2030 initiative), says today: The downturn in design activity that architecture firms have been reporting in recent months is projected to produce a mild decline in nonresidential construction activity this year, before turning down more significantly in 2009I think AIA has the best data available in building trends, while not exclusively 3d rendering based. How many registered architects are there here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Bergeron Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 I am licensed in the US. Alot of good it does me here in Austria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandmanNinja Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 But I bet you have access to better beer now, tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppyy08 Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 Quite possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieLeon Posted October 24, 2008 Author Share Posted October 24, 2008 Maybe or maybe not. I can't wait to see the results of the CGA economic survey. So far, I have noticed that a few freelancers are getting jobs and some artists have lost jobs at companies. But, I have also noticed that there are a lot of new freelancers entering the market. The signals seem mixed to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieLeon Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 FYI Things seem to be getting worse in the architecture job market: http://archrecord.construction.com/news/daily/archives/081117jobaxe.asp I hope there won't be any massacres... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Gaushell Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Numbers aren't looking so good. I've been hearing of layoffs from firms for a few months now. Likewise, I've watched developers that had seemed really strong cutting staff. Without a doubt it is impacting the arch viz market. I suspect more than a few of our types will go away and others will shrink. There seems to be plenty of 3D work for those willing to change industries and relocate though. Unfortunately for many architects it isn't quite as easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devin Johnston Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 I've seen several people back in our office in the last few weeks that had previously quit to go to other firms. In one case we had lost 7 people to Hanover a development company that decided they needed their own architectural department. Last month they fired the entire department including the VP that had left our firm to help start the department. I think that people in the arch viz field that are in house may have greater job security than the architects and designers around them, at least for a while. As jobs become harder to get firms are going to increase their marketing efforts as well as go the extra mile to impress clients, which means more renderings and animations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieLeon Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 I think that people in the arch viz field that are in house may have greater job security than the architects and designers around them, at least for a while. As jobs become harder to get firms are going to increase their marketing efforts as well as go the extra mile to impress clients, which means more renderings and animations. I agree 100%, but some large firms might eventually cut the in-house teams because they need to bring their overhead costs down to a certain level. They will then outsource the 3d as needed. This could be advantageous to the 3d companies if they offer the right value (service/cost). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tecton3d Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 I agree 100%, but some large firms might eventually cut the in-house teams because they need to bring their overhead costs down to a certain level. They will then outsource the 3d as needed. This could be advantageous to the 3d companies if they offer the right value (service/cost). The current situation may also provide somewhat of an opportunity to further integrate the visual industry, and therefore highly specialized artists, deeper into the design process so that 3D imagery isn't the only thing a company could offer a client but could be a consultant during the more preliminary design phases. To the point of perhaps embedding (via contract) vis artist "X" into arch/design firm "Y" while still having the infrastructure of his mother company. I guess it could be described as almost a "temp" relationship in which the artist is on loan and is still getting paid by his viz company but working for the client. Though this would bring to question the evolved and traditional model of a "studio" as an entity in and of itself (& all the employees based out of that office), it could be an alternative to trying to win mega visualization commissions that could be fewer and far between. The way I see it, the competition for buildings is going to be tougher than ever and architects (theoretically) could have shed to much of the talent that previously carried the graphics work in order to win commissions and therefore could use the highly focused, and ON DEMAND as mentioned above, service of this industry as long as it can be found at the right "value" as Eddie already mentioned. just thinking out loud. sorry for the run-on;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieLeon Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 ...To the point of perhaps embedding (via contract) vis artist "X" into arch/design firm "Y" while still having the infrastructure of his mother company. Bingo!! You hit the nail on the head. This is the kind of value and efficiency that some firms will be looking for. The idea is similar to how the reprographics industry provides on-site services. There are obvious differences between printing and design viz, but it's a good idea to outsource things that are non-core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devin Johnston Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Is this a long term contract where the studio has exclusive use of this person or persons? If it isn't then I don't see the difference between this and regular outsourcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Jeff Mottle Posted November 21, 2008 Administrators Share Posted November 21, 2008 Is this a long term contract where the studio has exclusive use of this person or persons? If it isn't then I don't see the difference between this and regular outsourcing. The scenarios I've seen are set up with retainer pricing, guaranteeing them X number of hours per month. The client might pay a monthly fee for 6-12 months, but always have access when they need someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tecton3d Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Is this a long term contract where the studio has exclusive use of this person or persons? If it isn't then I don't see the difference between this and regular outsourcing. i don't think it matters... long vs short term. the strength of the idea lies in its flexibility and would depend on how "Y" design firm needed the person contracted as per their work load. If there was a lull in their load of graphic/specialized work, then it makes logical sense that the artist pulls some weight for their respective studio (whom is still their employer) which could possibly be done over the .net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Jeff Mottle Posted November 21, 2008 Administrators Share Posted November 21, 2008 I agree 100%, but some large firms might eventually cut the in-house teams because they need to bring their overhead costs down to a certain level. They will then outsource the 3d as needed. This could be advantageous to the 3d companies if they offer the right value (service/cost). This is what happened to a former business partner and I. We were hired by an architectural firm to turn an in house department into a seperate firm, but 9 months in they all of a sudden realized that an arch viz company is not cheap (no kidding) and asked us to buy their shares out within 30 days. We both walked and they were left with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iain Denby Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 This situation COULD benifit SOME freelance viz people. Rather than pay an anual £30,000 (UK) salary to an in house guy for half a dozen visuals, the company could outsource those 6 jobs for around £12,000. BUT, would he outsource that work to the ex in house guy? Hmmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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