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Things Might Get Worse?


EddieLeon
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Jeff,

Would the Index break down the average by persons in the industry/total billing or company/total billing or just total billing.

 

If we just want to get a good sense of the health of the industry then I think the company size and billing amount doesn't matter. We just need to know the percentage of change in billings per month. This is all we need to create a simple graph that tells us if business for everyone is getting better or worse. Also, after a few years of charting performance then we can get a better sense of what the yearly sales cycles are like. For example, is the Fall quarter better than Summer in general? This helps everyone to plan accordingly.

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It will be necessary to break the firm size into some groupings, e.g., 1-5, 6-15, 16-30, 31-50, etc. since billings (some do other cg + archviz), methods, magnitudes, O&P will likely differ significantly. Maybe three groups? Also, some geographical locations breakdown will be necessary. This might lead to sectors such as archviz teams within architectural offices, interiors only folks, etc. Then, that info could be grouped on one chart. It would be similar to the salary studies published here.

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Inconsistent, as in apples and oranges. Not much use. If market tracking is going to be like the NYSE C, NIKKEI, and so on, it will be based on much reconciled data to be useful. Difficult? Getting the info and in a usable form is likely to be difficult but not impossible. Start by building an onion.

 

Another $.02. The pot is growing.

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If market tracking is going to be like the NYSE C, NIKKEI, and so on, it will be based on much reconciled data to be useful.

 

NYSE and NIKKEI are pretty complex. I think it will be easier to have a simple index like the S&P 500. Except I don't think we will track 500 companies. Maybe 50?

 

250px-SP500FF.svg.png

Linear graph of the S&P 500 from 1950 to the present

 

Wouldn't it be cool to have a simple graph like this that shows us how our market is performing?

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NYSE and NIKKEI are pretty complex. I think it will be easier to have a simple index like the S&P 500. Except I don't think we will track 500 companies. Maybe 50?

 

Wouldn't it be cool to have a simple graph like this that shows us how our market is performing?

 

+1, 100%.

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It souds great to have such a CGA Index. Imagine after years of tracking, we can probably predict the market at certain time of a year, is that possible? I don't know but does anyone know if there is such an index for architecture design market? If so, it may be interesting to compare the 2 indexes.

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Hi Jim,

 

Yes. I bet every year will have similar and predictable patterns. We can even compare them to the larger AEC industry and use it to predict future effects on Arch Viz. For example, if there is a drop in architectural billings we know that it will directly affect us down the line. This one is obvious, but there might be other good indicators to keep an eye on. Such as, office leasing rates or large land purchases. We will have to research this and see what other indexes we need to keep an eye on.

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An association i an part of called AIA(we are highly political, as you have to be these days as a architect see:2030 initiative), says today:

 

The downturn in design activity that architecture firms have been reporting in recent months is projected to produce a mild decline in nonresidential construction activity this year, before turning down more significantly in 2009
I think AIA has the best data available in building trends, while not exclusively 3d rendering based. How many registered architects are there here?
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  • 1 month later...

Maybe or maybe not. I can't wait to see the results of the CGA economic survey.

 

So far, I have noticed that a few freelancers are getting jobs and some artists have lost jobs at companies. But, I have also noticed that there are a lot of new freelancers entering the market. The signals seem mixed to me.

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Numbers aren't looking so good. I've been hearing of layoffs from firms for a few months now. Likewise, I've watched developers that had seemed really strong cutting staff. Without a doubt it is impacting the arch viz market. I suspect more than a few of our types will go away and others will shrink.

 

There seems to be plenty of 3D work for those willing to change industries and relocate though. Unfortunately for many architects it isn't quite as easy.

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I've seen several people back in our office in the last few weeks that had previously quit to go to other firms. In one case we had lost 7 people to Hanover a development company that decided they needed their own architectural department. Last month they fired the entire department including the VP that had left our firm to help start the department.

 

I think that people in the arch viz field that are in house may have greater job security than the architects and designers around them, at least for a while. As jobs become harder to get firms are going to increase their marketing efforts as well as go the extra mile to impress clients, which means more renderings and animations.

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I think that people in the arch viz field that are in house may have greater job security than the architects and designers around them, at least for a while. As jobs become harder to get firms are going to increase their marketing efforts as well as go the extra mile to impress clients, which means more renderings and animations.

 

I agree 100%, but some large firms might eventually cut the in-house teams because they need to bring their overhead costs down to a certain level. They will then outsource the 3d as needed. This could be advantageous to the 3d companies if they offer the right value (service/cost).

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I agree 100%, but some large firms might eventually cut the in-house teams because they need to bring their overhead costs down to a certain level. They will then outsource the 3d as needed. This could be advantageous to the 3d companies if they offer the right value (service/cost).

 

The current situation may also provide somewhat of an opportunity to further integrate the visual industry, and therefore highly specialized artists, deeper into the design process so that 3D imagery isn't the only thing a company could offer a client but could be a consultant during the more preliminary design phases. To the point of perhaps embedding (via contract) vis artist "X" into arch/design firm "Y" while still having the infrastructure of his mother company. I guess it could be described as almost a "temp" relationship in which the artist is on loan and is still getting paid by his viz company but working for the client. Though this would bring to question the evolved and traditional model of a "studio" as an entity in and of itself (& all the employees based out of that office), it could be an alternative to trying to win mega visualization commissions that could be fewer and far between.

 

The way I see it, the competition for buildings is going to be tougher than ever and architects (theoretically) could have shed to much of the talent that previously carried the graphics work in order to win commissions and therefore could use the highly focused, and ON DEMAND as mentioned above, service of this industry as long as it can be found at the right "value" as Eddie already mentioned.

 

just thinking out loud. sorry for the run-on;)

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...To the point of perhaps embedding (via contract) vis artist "X" into arch/design firm "Y" while still having the infrastructure of his mother company.

 

Bingo!! You hit the nail on the head. This is the kind of value and efficiency that some firms will be looking for. The idea is similar to how the reprographics industry provides on-site services. There are obvious differences between printing and design viz, but it's a good idea to outsource things that are non-core.

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Is this a long term contract where the studio has exclusive use of this person or persons? If it isn't then I don't see the difference between this and regular outsourcing.

 

The scenarios I've seen are set up with retainer pricing, guaranteeing them X number of hours per month. The client might pay a monthly fee for 6-12 months, but always have access when they need someone.

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Is this a long term contract where the studio has exclusive use of this person or persons? If it isn't then I don't see the difference between this and regular outsourcing.

i don't think it matters... long vs short term. the strength of the idea lies in its flexibility and would depend on how "Y" design firm needed the person contracted as per their work load. If there was a lull in their load of graphic/specialized work, then it makes logical sense that the artist pulls some weight for their respective studio (whom is still their employer) which could possibly be done over the .net

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I agree 100%, but some large firms might eventually cut the in-house teams because they need to bring their overhead costs down to a certain level. They will then outsource the 3d as needed. This could be advantageous to the 3d companies if they offer the right value (service/cost).

 

This is what happened to a former business partner and I. We were hired by an architectural firm to turn an in house department into a seperate firm, but 9 months in they all of a sudden realized that an arch viz company is not cheap (no kidding) and asked us to buy their shares out within 30 days. We both walked and they were left with nothing.

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